“To settle in this country is not a right, but a privilege,” Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told MPs as she unveiled plans to move most routes to settlement from five to ten years. The statement, delivered in the Commons on 20 November, launches a formal consultation on stricter tests for permanent residency and signals longer waits for some visa holders. The consultation closes at 11:59pm on 12 February 2026.

For readers across the North, the headline is twofold: a default ten‑year path to settlement and a proposed 15‑year wait for many recruited on the health and care visa. This lands after ministers closed overseas recruitment for new care and senior care workers on 22 July 2025, a step already reshaping staffing plans from Cumbria to the Humber.

Under the proposals, settlement would no longer follow near‑automatically after time served. Applicants would need to show a clean criminal record, English at A‑level standard, sustained National Insurance contributions and no debt in the UK. These are firm bars; fail one and settlement can be refused.

Time could move faster for some. Those working in public services - including doctors, nurses and teachers - would qualify after five years. Volunteers could see a route between five and seven years, while people with degree‑level English could settle after nine. Higher‑rate taxpayers could qualify at five years and top‑rate taxpayers at three, the same as those on Global Talent visas. Partners of British citizens and BN(O) Hongkongers remain on five; Windrush and EU Settlement Scheme grants are unchanged.

Others would face longer waits. People who have received benefits for under 12 months could see settlement only after 15 years; over 12 months would be 20. Those who entered the UK illegally could wait up to 30 years. Refugees on the new core protection would follow a 20‑year path, while those arriving by safe and legal routes remain at ten. Ministers are also consulting on whether to reserve most benefits for citizens rather than people with settled status.

The sharpest change for our patch sits with the health and care visa cohort. The Home Office proposes a 15‑year baseline to settle for lower‑qualified roles in that route - and, crucially, to apply these changes to everyone already here who has not yet received indefinite leave to remain. Mahmood stressed that those who already hold settled status will not be touched: “We do not break our promises.”

This is unfolding against a tight labour market. Skills for Care data show international recruitment into adult social care more than halved from about 105,000 in 2023/24 to around 50,000 in 2024/25, while CQC tracking shows monthly health and care visa applications falling to roughly 1,700 by April 2025. Inspectors warn that if overseas staff leave and cannot be replaced, services in some regions risk slipping back to post‑pandemic pressures.

Front‑line providers are already sounding the alarm. “International recruitment has collapsed… we are sleepwalking into future workforce shortages unless the government acts now,” said Dr Jane Townson OBE of the Homecare Association, calling for a funded workforce plan and fair pay deals. That warning echoes what many Northern domiciliary care firms tell us privately about rotas, retention and costs.

The NHS picture matters too. About one in five NHS roles in England is held by non‑UK nationals, with a third of doctors and three in ten nurses trained overseas. Trusts across the North have depended on international recruitment to keep wards safe; a five‑year settlement route for public‑service staff may help retention, but the wider squeeze on care risks knock‑on pressure at A&E and on discharge.

For Northern businesses, universities and research labs, the consultation sketches quicker routes for those making bigger economic or scientific contributions - including Global Talent, top‑rate taxpayers at three years, higher‑rate at five, and degree‑level English reducing the wait to nine. Firms should stress, with evidence, how settlement rules shape recruitment in advanced manufacturing, digital, and life sciences across our towns and cities.

There is also a live question about fairness. Applying new hurdles to people already here but not yet at settlement will feel like a moving target to many families - even as the Home Office says existing ILR and schemes like Windrush and the EU Settlement Scheme are untouched. Ministers argue the pace of recent migration requires a reset; Northern leaders will want to weigh that against workforce gaps and local finances.

This is a consultation, not yet law. The Home Office wants detailed feedback on the earned‑settlement model, with responses due by 11:59pm on 12 February 2026. Councils, ICBs, care providers, hospital trusts, universities and employers across the North should put hard numbers on staffing, training budgets and service impact - and make them count in Whitehall.